Decoding Beijing's Military Coercion: Gokhale's Essential New Book

Vijay Gokhale, a distinguished former Indian Foreign Secretary and Ambassador to China, has released a pivotal new book titled 'China's Wars: The Politics and Diplomacy Behind Its Military Coercion.' This timely work provides an incisive review of Beijing's strategic military thinking, aiming to decipher the complex interplay of politics, diplomacy, and military action that defines China's approach to conflict.

Gokhale's central thesis posits that China's decisions to engage in military coercion or conflict are rarely driven by purely operational or territorial objectives. Instead, they are deeply rooted in political and diplomatic considerations, often influenced by a confluence of domestic and global circumstances. The book argues that China views the use of force as a fundamentally political act, inherent in the DNA of the Chinese Communist Party, tracing this back to Mao Zedong's revolutionary doctrine that 'war is politics with bloodshed'. This perspective is crucial for understanding why China's goals in conflict are never defined in military terms alone, but rather by larger geopolitical objectives.

A key aspect explored in 'China's Wars' is Beijing's distinctive concept of deterrence. Unlike the Western understanding, which is often reactive and defensive, China's deterrence is presented as preemptive and offensive. This involves delivering a sharp political shock to an adversary to prevent them from acting, often through 'grey-zone' tactics. These tactics involve calibrated, limited uses of military pressure designed to achieve political objectives without escalating to a full-scale conventional war. Examples of such grey-zone coercion are evident in the Himalayas, the South China Sea, and the Taiwan Strait.

The book highlights China's adeptness at portraying itself as a victim of aggression, consistently holding adversaries responsible for provoking conflict and compelling Beijing to retaliate in 'self-defence'. This narrative is deeply embedded in China's strategic culture, often linked to the historical 'century of humiliation' and the civilizational idea of a 'just and virtuous ruler'. By framing its actions as righteous 'counterattacks', China seeks to reconcile offensive military action with a self-image of moral restraint, justifying the use of force as a necessary correction of injustice.

Gokhale provides detailed case studies from China's past conflicts to illustrate these patterns of coercion. The book examines the Taiwan Strait crisis of 1958, the India-China border war of 1962, the Sino-Soviet border conflict of 1969, and the China-Vietnam War of 1979. Through these historical examples, the author identifies the objectives China pursued, the strategies and tactics it adopted, and the overarching political motivations. For instance, in the 1962 conflict with India, Gokhale points out that China's policy was influenced by India's warming relations with the US and reconciliation with Russia, with an overriding political objective to steer India towards a neutral stance in superpower competition.

Crucially, 'China's Wars' draws vital lessons for India. Gokhale emphasizes the importance for India to monitor China's relations with the US and Russia and the broader triangular balance of power, rather than focusing solely on bilateral ties. This is particularly pertinent given China's rapid rise as a military and economic power and its frequent references to an 'unfinished territorial agenda' which directly impacts India. The book serves as a critical guide for practitioners, strategists, and researchers to anticipate and understand when and why China might engage in future military coercion or conflict, stressing that China plans its diplomacy and propaganda proactively as part of its operational strategy, rather than reactively.

With nearly four decades in the Indian Foreign Service, including a tenure as Ambassador to China from 2016-17, Gokhale's insights are informed by extensive firsthand experience and research. His previous award-winning book, 'The Long Game: How the Chinese Negotiate with India,' further solidifies his reputation as a leading expert on China's strategic thinking. 'China's Wars' is therefore an indispensable read for anyone seeking to comprehend the intricate workings of the Chinese mind and its implications for global geopolitics.